{"generated":"2026-08-22T18:00:37.974Z","context":{"question":"Is there observational evidence that the high-end sea level tail is being realised?","tail":"IPCC AR6 SSP5-8.5 low confidence at Virginia Key: 3.43 ft median at 2100, p95 8.39 ft. That p95 is driven almost entirely by marine ice sheet instability in West Antarctica.","latencyWarning":"What updates fastest here contributes least to sea level. What matters most (ice sheet mass) is monthly and currently unavailable. Read the lag on every tile."},"indicators":[{"id":"seaice_north","group":"Sea ice (context, not sea level)","label":"Arctic sea ice extent","value":5.265,"unit":"million km²","observed":"2026-08-21","lagDays":1,"anomaly":-1.639,"sigma":-2.1,"anomalyNote":"-1.639 vs 1981–2010 mean for this day (-2.1σ)","raisesSeaLevel":false,"caveat":"Sea ice is floating. Its loss adds nothing directly to sea level. It matters here only indirectly: less sea ice means ocean swell reaches ice shelf fronts that buttress grounded ice. Do not read this as a sea level signal.","cadence":"daily","expectedLagDays":7,"source":{"name":"NSIDC Sea Ice Index v4.0","url":"https://noaadata.apps.nsidc.org/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/N_seaice_extent_daily_v4.0.csv"},"status":"ok","retrieved":"2026-08-22T18:00:37.974Z"},{"id":"seaice_south","group":"Sea ice (context, not sea level)","label":"Antarctic sea ice extent","value":16.443,"unit":"million km²","observed":"2026-08-21","lagDays":1,"anomaly":-1.481,"sigma":-4.29,"anomalyNote":"-1.481 vs 1981–2010 mean for this day (-4.29σ)","raisesSeaLevel":false,"caveat":"Sea ice is floating. Its loss adds nothing directly to sea level. It matters here only indirectly: less sea ice means ocean swell reaches ice shelf fronts that buttress grounded ice. Do not read this as a sea level signal.","cadence":"daily","expectedLagDays":7,"source":{"name":"NSIDC Sea Ice Index v4.0","url":"https://noaadata.apps.nsidc.org/NOAA/G02135/south/daily/data/S_seaice_extent_daily_v4.0.csv"},"status":"ok","retrieved":"2026-08-22T18:00:37.974Z"},{"id":"nino34_weekly","group":"Ocean forcing","label":"Niño 3.4 SST anomaly (weekly)","value":2.7,"unit":"°C","observed":"2026-08-12","lagDays":10,"phase":"very strong El Niño","trend":[{"t":"2026-06-24","v":1.8},{"t":"2026-07-01","v":1.7},{"t":"2026-07-08","v":2},{"t":"2026-07-15","v":2.1},{"t":"2026-07-22","v":2.2},{"t":"2026-07-29","v":2.3},{"t":"2026-08-05","v":2.6},{"t":"2026-08-12","v":2.7}],"trendNote":"+0.9 °C over the last 8 weeks (1.8 → 2.7)","raisesSeaLevel":null,"caveat":"ENSO does not act on Antarctica with a single sign. During strong El Niño, Amundsen Sea ice shelves tend to GAIN height from increased snowfall while LOSING mass to warmer Circumpolar Deep Water at the base. A dashboard built on altimetric height would show those shelves thickening during exactly the episodes that are thinning them. See Paolo et al., Nature Geoscience 2018 — verify before citing.","cadence":"weekly","expectedLagDays":12,"source":{"name":"NOAA CPC weekly SST, 1991–2020 base","url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for"},"status":"ok","retrieved":"2026-08-22T18:00:37.974Z"},{"id":"oni","group":"Ocean forcing","label":"Oceanic Niño Index (official, MJJ)","value":1.39,"unit":"°C","observed":"2026-06-15","lagDays":68,"phase":"moderate El Niño","raisesSeaLevel":null,"caveat":"ONI is the index El Niño and La Niña are officially defined against, and it is a THREE-MONTH RUNNING MEAN centred two months back. It therefore cannot be current, by construction, and will always read lower than the weekly value during an intensifying event. That is not a lag to be fixed; it is what the index is. Use the weekly figure for \"what is happening now\" and ONI for \"what it will officially be called\". ENSO does not act on Antarctica with a single sign. During strong El Niño, Amundsen Sea ice shelves tend to GAIN height from increased snowfall while LOSING mass to warmer Circumpolar Deep Water at the base. A dashboard built on altimetric height would show those shelves thickening during exactly the episodes that are thinning them. See Paolo et al., Nature Geoscience 2018 — verify before citing.","cadence":"monthly, 3-month running mean centred ~2 months back","expectedLagDays":80,"source":{"name":"NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index","url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt"},"status":"ok","retrieved":"2026-08-22T18:00:37.974Z"},{"id":"virginia_key_wl","group":"Downstream — Miami","label":"Virginia Key observed water level","value":-0.715,"unit":"ft NAVD88","observed":"2026-08-22T17:54:00Z","lagDays":0,"raisesSeaLevel":true,"reference":{"MHHW":0.23,"HAT":1.2,"minorFlood":1.92,"moderateFlood":2.89,"majorFlood":4.12},"caveat":"A single six-minute observation, dominated by tide and weather. It is not a sea level trend and must never be read as one. It is here to close the loop: this is the gauge every scenario in the parent package is referenced to.","cadence":"6-minutely","expectedLagDays":1,"source":{"name":"NOAA CO-OPS station 8723214","url":"https://api.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/api/prod/datagetter?date=latest&station=8723214&product=water_level&datum=NAVD&units=english&time_zone=gmt&format=json&application=SeaLevelRise-IceMonitor"},"status":"ok","retrieved":"2026-08-22T18:00:37.974Z"},{"id":"grace_fo_mass","group":"Ice sheet mass (the number that matters)","label":"Greenland & Antarctica mass anomaly","value":null,"unit":"Gt","observed":null,"lagDays":null,"status":"unavailable","raisesSeaLevel":true,"caveat":"GRACE-FO mascon solutions are the only direct measurement of ice sheet MASS, and mass is what raises sea level. They are distributed through NASA PO.DAAC behind Earthdata Login. There is no anonymous endpoint, so this monitor cannot show the single most important indicator it tracks. That is a real limitation of this dashboard, not of the data: the measurement exists and is excellent. Supply Earthdata credentials to close this gap. Native latency is roughly 1–2 months regardless.","cadence":"monthly, 1–2 month processing lag","source":{"name":"NASA PO.DAAC GRACE-FO mascons (auth required)","url":"https://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/"},"retrieved":"2026-08-22T18:00:37.974Z"}],"tripwires":[{"id":"tw_antarctic_seaice","label":"Antarctic sea ice extent below −2σ","threshold":-2,"unit":"σ vs 1981–2010","current":-4.29,"means":"Sustained multi-year excursions expose more ice shelf front to open-ocean swell, which removes buttressing from grounded ice that does raise sea level.","doesNotMean":"Not sea level rise. Sea ice is floating and its melt adds nothing directly. A single day below threshold is weather, not a trend.","state":"tripped"},{"id":"tw_enso_strong","label":"Niño 3.4 at or above +1.5 °C (strong El Niño)","threshold":1.5,"unit":"°C","current":2.7,"means":"Elevated basal melt risk for Amundsen Sea ice shelves via warm Circumpolar Deep Water, the mechanism most directly tied to the marine ice sheet instability behind the p95 tail.","doesNotMean":"Not an ice loss measurement. Surface snowfall rises at the same time, so shelf HEIGHT may increase while mass falls. The two signals oppose each other.","state":"tripped"},{"id":"tw_vk_minor_flood","label":"Virginia Key at or above NOAA minor flood threshold","threshold":1.92,"unit":"ft NAVD88","current":-0.715,"means":"Downtown Miami is in a high-tide flooding event at this instant.","doesNotMean":"Nothing about ice sheets or long-term sea level. This is tide plus weather, and it is included to close the loop to the place the parent package is about.","state":"not tripped"},{"id":"tw_mass_loss","label":"Ice sheet mass loss acceleration","threshold":null,"unit":"Gt/yr²","current":null,"means":"The decisive indicator for the high-end tail.","doesNotMean":"","blocked":"Cannot be evaluated. GRACE-FO requires NASA Earthdata authentication, so the most important tripwire in this list is unarmed. Stated rather than dropped.","state":"unarmed"}],"sourceHealth":{"ok":5,"stale":0,"error":0,"unavailable":1}}